{"id":3063,"date":"2026-05-30T14:38:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T14:38:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/?p=3063"},"modified":"2026-05-30T14:38:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T14:38:32","slug":"mena-focus-2026%eb%85%84-5%ec%9b%94%ed%98%b8-turkeys-calculations-amid-the-u-s-israel-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/?p=3063","title":{"rendered":"[MENA Focus 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4\ud638] Turkey\u2019s Calculations amid the U.S.-Israel\u2013Iran War"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=””]<\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s Calculations amid the U.S.-Israel<\/b>\u2013<\/b>Iran War<\/b><\/p>\n

Han, Ha-eun(SNUAC)<\/p>\n

As the U.S.-Israel\u2013Iran war has become prolonged, Turkey\u2019s diplomatic position has moved beyond a simple \u2018anti-Israel\u2019 discourse and toward a more complex crisis-management strategy. In the early stage of the war, the Turkish government strongly criticized Israel\u2019s and the United States\u2019 attacks on Iran, defining them as the starting point of a \u2018geopolitical deadlock\u2019 that could spread across the Middle East. This position also overlapped with the anti-Israel sentiment that had intensified after the Gaza war, helping the Erdo\u011fan government consolidate support among conservative and Islamist constituencies at home. However, as the war dragged on and the possibility grew that Iran\u2019s missile and drone attacks could expand into the Gulf region, Turkey\u2019s calculations became difficult to explain solely in terms of ideological solidarity. President Erdo\u011fan warned that the war could drag the entire region into a \u2018ring of fire\u2019, while also drawing a line against Iranian military escalation. This shows that while Turkey criticized the military actions of Israel and the United States, it avoided a position of unconditional support for Iran. Ultimately, Ankara\u2019s diplomatic line is based on a realist judgment: it politically utilizes anti-Israel discourse, while in actual policy it seeks to manage border stability, energy prices, refugee flows, and the possible spread of the Kurdish issue.<\/p>\n

This realist calculation became the background for Turkey\u2019s shift, after mid-April, from critical diplomacy toward mediation-oriented diplomacy. In this process, Pakistan and Qatar emerged as key mediators in the indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, and Turkey sought to support this diplomatic momentum while also securing its own diplomatic space. In particular, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a May 12 interview that both the United States and Iran appeared to show \u2018sufficient will\u2019 to stop the war, making clear that Turkey\u2019s main concern was not military intervention but the preservation of a negotiating environment. Therefore, during this period, the focus of Turkish diplomacy was less on openly joining a specific camp and more on supporting surrounding diplomatic channels so that the ceasefire would not collapse.<\/p>\n

As of May 27, Turkey\u2019s position can be understood as an even more cautious, mediation-oriented stance. On May 26, the United States carried out airstrikes against military targets in southern Iran, which Iran described as a violation of the ceasefire. At the same time, however, Iran did not withdraw from the peace negotiations involving Pakistan and Qatar. In this situation, Turkey has acted less as the principal mediator and more as a supporting mediator, offering diplomatic backing to prevent the negotiation framework from breaking down. In particular, instability in international oil prices and the escalation of tensions on the Lebanese front in late May showed Turkey that this war was not merely a regional conflict, but a direct issue for its domestic economy and security. Therefore, Ankara\u2019s cautious attitude should not be seen as diplomatic passivity; rather, it can be understood as a crisis-management strategy aimed at preventing escalation and minimizing the economic and security shocks that could affect Turkey.<\/p>\n

Domestic public opinion also supports this cautious line. Turkish society contains strong anti-Israel sentiment and a discourse of solidarity with Palestine, but this does not necessarily translate into a demand for Turkey to side with Iran and become involved in the war. Rather, many voters are critical of Israel\u2019s military actions while also not wanting Turkey to become a direct party to the conflict. Accordingly, the Erdo\u011fan government\u2019s diplomacy emphasized \u2018moral solidarity with Palestine and the Islamic world\u2019, while in actual policy it developed in a direction that managed Turkey\u2019s security calculations as a NATO member and its domestic economic anxieties. In the end, the shift in Turkey\u2019s position should be understood not as a pro-Iranian turn, but as a strategic balancing adjustment: using anti-Israel discourse as a domestic political resource, avoiding direct confrontation, and maximizing Turkey\u2019s image as a mediator.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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