{"id":2639,"date":"2025-06-27T01:08:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T01:08:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/?p=2639"},"modified":"2025-06-27T01:08:41","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T01:08:41","slug":"mena-focus-2025%eb%85%84-6%ec%9b%94%ed%98%b8-the-strategic-dilemma-of-gulf-monarchies-amid-escalating-iran-israel-tensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/?p=2639","title":{"rendered":"[MENA Focus 2025\ub144 6\uc6d4\ud638] The Strategic Dilemma of Gulf Monarchies Amid Escalating Iran-Israel Tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The Strategic Dilemma of Gulf Monarchies Amid Escalating Iran-Israel Tensions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<strong> So Yeon Ahn (SNUAC)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Following Israel\u2019s attack on Iran and the subsequent U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities under the Trump administration, the already unstable situation in the Middle East has further deteriorated. This new phase of conflict began just as expectations were rising that the Gulf states would emerge as key players in shaping a new regional order\u2014particularly following President Trump\u2019s visit to three Gulf nations in May. In this context, the inner stance of the Gulf monarchies is seen as highly complex.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Immediately after Israel\u2019s strike on Iran, Arab and Islamic countries\u2014including Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE\u2014strongly condemned the attack, expressing firm opposition and emphasizing the need to halt Israel\u2019s hostile actions toward Iran. Although Gulf states publicly denounced Israel\u2019s aggression, they are believed to be calculating a complex set of strategic interests behind the scenes. In his speech in Saudi Arabia last May, President Trump urged the kingdom to join efforts to normalize relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia has been informally pursuing normalization with Israel for some time. However, the recent attack is expected to weaken momentum toward formalizing such ties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another major concern for Gulf states is that the escalating Iran-Israel conflict could destabilize the region, inevitably disrupting their ambitious economic reform agendas\u2014one of their top priorities. Furthermore, the U.S. military\u2019s involvement raises the risk that Iran might retaliate by attacking American forces stationed in Gulf countries, creating a direct security threat. For this reason, Gulf monarchies are eager to prevent further escalation. Adding to their concerns is the worst-case scenario: an explosion at an Iranian nuclear facility could lead to severe environmental contamination, which also deeply worries the Gulf monarchies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While these states continue to oppose Iran\u2019s acquisition of nuclear weapons, they may find some relief in the weakening of Iran\u2019s power following the attack. Still, if the conflict ultimately leads to a strengthened Israeli presence in the region\u2014disrupting the balance of power in the Middle East\u2014this is not a scenario the Gulf states welcome. In short, the Gulf monarchies find themselves unable\u2014or unwilling\u2014to adopt a clear position or response in the current Iran-Israel conflict.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\uc774\ub780-\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uac08\ub4f1 \uaca9\ud654 \uc18d \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uac78\ud504 \uc655\uc815 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2ec\ub9ac<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>\u00a0\uc548\uc18c\uc5f0 (\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \uacf5\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc774\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \ud575\uc2dc\uc124 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\ud55c \uc815\uc138\uac00 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c 5\uc6d4 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uac78\ud504 3\uac1c \uad6d\uac00 \ubc29\ubb38 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc9c8\uc11c\ub97c \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud574\uac00\ub294 \uc8fc\uc5ed\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uace0\uc870\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc774\ubc88 \uac08\ub4f1 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uac78\ud504 \uc655\uc815 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc18d\ub0b4\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \uacf5\uaca9 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544, \uce74\ud0c0\ub974, UAE \ub4f1 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc544\ub78d \ubc0f \uc774\uc2ac\ub78c \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uacf5\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2e8\ud638\ud55c \uac70\ubd80\uc640 \uaddc\ud0c4\uc744 \ud45c\uba85\ud558\uba70 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uc801\ub300 \ud589\uc704\ub97c \uc911\ub2e8\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud558\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\ud45c\uba74\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \uacf5\uaca9\uc744 \ube44\ub09c\ud558\uc600\uc73c\ub098 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \uacf5\uaca9\uc744 \ub450\uace0 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc148\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub193\uc5ec \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uba3c\uc800 \uc9c0\ub09c 5\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544\uc5d0\uc11c \uac16\uc740 \uc5f0\uc124\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uac00 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc \uad00\uacc4 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\uc5d0 \ub3d9\ucc38\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \ucd09\uad6c\ud558\uc600\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\ub294 \ube44\uacf5\uc2dd\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc \uad00\uacc4 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub97c \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \ucd94\uad6c\ud574\uc654\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ubc88 \uacf5\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc \uad00\uacc4\uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \ucd94\ub3d9\ub825\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c, \uc774\ubc88 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8-\uc774\ub780 \uac08\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud558\uc5ec \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc815\uc138\uac00 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\ud574\uc9d0\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uac1c\ud601\uc758 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uac1c\uc785\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0 \uc704\uce58\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubbf8\uad70\uc744 \uacf5\uaca9\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc548\ubcf4 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0 \ucc98\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud669 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uace0\uc870\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc6d0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub354\ud574, \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \uc774\ub780 \ud575\uc2dc\uc124 \ud3ed\ubc1c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud658\uacbd \uc624\uc5fc \ub4f1\ub3c4 \uac78\ud504 \uc655\uc815 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ud070 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\uac78\ud504 \uc655\uc815 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \ud575 \ubcf4\uc720\ub97c \ubd80\uc815\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc774\ubc88 \uacf5\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc138\ub825\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\uc74c\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc548\ub3c4\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ubc88 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uacb0\uad6d \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uc5ed\ub0b4 \uc138\ub825 \uac15\ud654\ub97c \uc0c1\uc9d5\ud558\uc5ec \uc911\ub3d9 \uc5ed\ub0b4 \uc138\ub825 \uade0\ud615\uc774 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83 \ub610\ud55c \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ubc14\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc544\ub2d0 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc989, \uc774\ubc88 \uc774\ub780-\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uac08\ub4f1 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc785\uc7a5\uc774\ub098 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ub0b4\uc138\uc6b0\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Strategic Dilemma of Gulf Monarchies Amid Escalating Iran-Israel Tensions  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2025-6-mena-focus"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2639"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2639\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2656,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2639\/revisions\/2656"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}