{"id":2583,"date":"2025-05-26T11:52:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-26T11:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/?p=2583"},"modified":"2025-05-26T11:52:07","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T11:52:07","slug":"mena-focus-2025%eb%85%84-5%ec%9b%94%ed%98%b8-disarmament-of-the-pkk-and-erdogans-political-intentions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/?p=2583","title":{"rendered":"[MENA Focus 2025\ub144 5\uc6d4\ud638] Disarmament of the PKK and Erdo\u011fan\u2019s Political Intentions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Disarmament of the PKK and Erdo\u011fan\u2019s Political Intentions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Han Haeun (SNUAC)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Turkey&#8217;s politics have been shaped over the past decades by its ongoing conflict with the Kurdistan Workers&#8217; Party (PKK), a separatist militant organization. The PKK issue has been deeply intertwined with domestic concerns such as national security, ethnic identity, and democratic governance, making the conflict a complex and central factor in Turkish political life. One of the most pivotal moments in this dynamic was the 2013 &#8220;peace process,&#8221; during which the PKK declared a ceasefire and sought a political dialogue. PKK leader Abdullah \u00d6calan&#8217;s call for disarmament and political resolution was a symbolic turning point in Turkey\u2019s political history. This peace initiative temporarily reduced violence and alleviated security concerns, but also provided the Erdo\u011fan government with an opportunity to politically capitalize on the progress. In 2014, Erdo\u011fan was elected as Turkey&#8217;s first president through a direct popular vote. At that time, he emphasized the peace talks and reform agenda to gain support from Kurdish voters, successfully drawing a portion of the Kurdish electorate. The peace climate helped craft his image as a &#8220;president for all citizens.&#8221; However, the political landscape shifted rapidly. In the 2015 general elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its parliamentary majority, prompting Erdo\u011fan to adopt a more hardline stance. The ceasefire with the PKK collapsed, and violent clashes resumed, bringing security concerns back to the forefront. Erdo\u011fan leveraged this situation to emphasize national unity and security, ultimately securing re-election in the 2018 presidential elections.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Erdo\u011fan won the 2023 presidential election, he did so with significantly lower public support, indicating a weakened political standing. While this term is supposed to be his last under the current law, if an early election is held before the official end of his term in 2028, he could potentially extend his rule for another five years, staying in power until 2033. To do so, he must secure the approval of 3\/5 of the 600-seat parliament\u2014at least 360 seats. However, even with the support of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), his coalition only holds 321 seats, leaving him short by 39. Efforts to court the pro-Kurdish People&#8217;s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), which holds 57 seats, have been underway since last year. In October 2024, MHP leader Devlet Bah\u00e7eli proposed that Abdullah \u00d6calan, currently imprisoned, could be allowed to speak in parliament if he formally renounced armed struggle\u2014his parole was even discussed. Amid this backdrop, \u00d6calan himself reportedly ordered the end of armed struggle and called for the disbanding of the PKK. Still, it remains uncertain whether the PKK will actually disband. \u00d6calan\u2019s disarmament call may not be solely to ensure Erdo\u011fan\u2019s political longevity. It could reflect an acceptance of the improbability of establishing an independent Kurdish state, and instead signal a shift toward securing broader autonomous rights within Turkey as a means of ensuring the Kurds\u2019 survival and political future.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PKK \ubb34\uc7a5\ud574\uc81c\uc640 \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc758 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc758\ub3c4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>\ud55c\ud558\uc740 (\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \uc815\uce58\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc218\uc2ed \ub144\uac04 \ucfe0\ub974\ub4dc \ubd84\ub9ac\uc8fc\uc758 \ubb34\uc7a5\uc870\uc9c1\uc778 \ucfe0\ub974\ub4dc\ub178\ub3d9\uc790\ub2f9(PKK)\uacfc\uc758 \uac08\ub4f1 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc694\ub3d9\uccd0\uc654\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubb34\uc7a5 \uc870\uc9c1\uacfc\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub294 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc815\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\ubcf4, \ubbfc\uc871 \uc815\uccb4\uc131, \ubbfc\uc8fc\uc8fc\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\uc640 \uc5bd\ud600 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc591\uc0c1\uc744 \ub760\uc5b4\uc654\uace0, \uc774 \uac08\ub4f1\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ub298 \uc815\uce58 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ubcc4\ud788 2013\ub144\uc758 \u2018\ud3c9\ud654 \ud611\uc0c1\u2019\uc740 PKK\uac00 \ubb34\uc7a5 \ud22c\uc7c1\uc744 \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\uace0 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ub300\ud654\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc21c\uac04\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. PKK \uc9c0\ub3c4\uc790 \uc555\ub458\ub77c \uc678\uc798\ub780\uc774 \ubb34\uc7a5 \ud574\uc81c\ub97c \ucd09\uad6c\ud558\uba70 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ud574\uacb0\uc744 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \uc815\uce58\uc0ac\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc0c1\uc9d5\uc801\uc778 \uc7a5\uba74\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud3c9\ud654 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub294 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \ud3ed\ub825\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uace0 \uc548\ubcf4 \ubd88\uc548\uc744 \ud574\uc18c\ud558\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uac00\uc838\uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uadf8 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \uc815\uce58\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uae30\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2014\ub144, \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc740 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \ucd5c\ucd08\uc758 \uad6d\ubbfc \uc9c1\uc120\uc81c \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc73c\ub85c \ub2f9\uc120\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uadf8\ub294 \ucfe0\ub974\ub4dc \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc720\uad8c\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \ud45c\uc2ec\uc744 \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud3c9\ud654\ud611\uc0c1\uacfc \uac1c\ud601 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \ubd80\uac01\uc2dc\ucf30\uace0, \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc77c\ubd80 \ucfe0\ub974\ub4dc \uc9c0\uc9c0\uce35\uc758 \ud45c\ub97c \ud761\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc131\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4. \ud3c9\ud654 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub294 \uadf8\ub97c \u2018\uc804 \uad6d\ubbfc\uc758 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839&#8217;\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0\ub85c \ud3ec\uc7a5\ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ud6c4 \uc815\uc138\ub294 \uae09\ubcc0\ud588\ub2e4. 2015\ub144 \ucd1d\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9d1\uad8c \uc5ec\ub2f9\uc778 \uc815\uc758\uac1c\ubc1c\ub2f9(AKP)\uc774 \uacfc\ubc18 \uc758\uc11d\uc744 \uc0c1\uc2e4\ud558\uc790, \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc740 \uac15\uacbd \ub178\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\uc120\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. PKK\uc640\uc758 \uc815\uc804\uc774 \ubd95\uad34\ub418\uace0, \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubb34\uc7a5 \ucda9\ub3cc\uc774 \uaca9\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc548\ubcf4 \uc774\uc288\uac00 \uc804\uba74\uc5d0 \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud574 \uad6d\ubbfc \ud1b5\ud569\uacfc \uad6d\uac00 \uc548\ubcf4\ub97c \ub0b4\uc138\uc6b0\uba70 2018\ub144 \ub300\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7ac\uc120\uc5d0 \uc131\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc740 2023\ub144 \ub300\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\uc2ac\ub78c \ud3ec\ud4f0\ub9ac\uc998\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c \uc7a5\uae30 \uc9d1\uad8c\uc5d0 \uacfc\uac70\uc640\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc800\uc870\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc728\ub85c \uaca8\uc6b0 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc785\uc9c0\uac00 \ubd88\uc548\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc774\ub2e4. \ubc95\ub839\ub300\ub85c \ud558\uba74 \uc774\ubc88\uc9c0 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc784\uae30\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc784\uae30\uac00 \ub9cc\ub8cc\ub418\ub294 2028\ub144 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc870\uae30 \ub300\uc120\uc744 \uce58\ub974\uba74 5\ub144\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud574\uc11c 2033\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc740 600\uc11d \uad6d\ud68c\uc758 3\/5\uc778 360\uc11d\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294\ub370, AKP\uc640 \uc5f0\uc815\uc744 \ud558\uace0\uc788\ub294 \ubbfc\uc871\uc8fc\uc758\ud589\ub3d9\ub2f9(MHP)\ub97c \ud569\ud574\ub3c4 321\uc11d\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud558\ubbc0\ub85c \ucd5c\uc18c 39\uc11d\uc744 \ub354 \ud655\ubcf4\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc2e4\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. 57\uc11d\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc81c3\ub2f9\uc778 \uce5c\ucfe0\ub974\uc815\ub2f9 \uc778\ubbfc\ud3c9\ub4f1\ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9(DEM)\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uacf5\uc791\uc774 \uc791\ub144\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 10\uc6d4 MHP\uc758 \ubc14\ud750\uccb4\ub9ac(Devlet Bah\u00e7eli) \ub2f9\ub300\ud45c\ub294 \u201c\uc9c0\uae08 \uc218\uac10 \uc911\uc778 \uc678\uc798\ub780\uc774 \ubb34\uc7a5\ud22c\uc7c1\uc744 \ud3ec\uae30\ud558\uba74 \uc758\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc124\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \uc8fc\uc120\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\u201d\ub77c\uace0 \uc81c\uc548\ud558\uc600\uace0, \uc678\uc798\ub780\uc758 \uac00\uc11d\ubc29\ub9c8\uc800 \uac70\ub860\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc640\uc911\uc5d0 \uc678\uc798\ub780\uc774 \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c \ubb34\uc7a5\ud22c\uc7c1 \uc885\uc2dd\uacfc PKK \ud574\uccb4\ub97c \uba85\ub839\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc2e4\uc81c PKK\uac00 \ud574\uccb4\ud560\uc9c0\ub294 \uc758\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. PKK\uc758 \ubb34\uc7a5\ud574\uc81c \uc120\ud3ec\ub294 \uc5d0\ub974\ub3c4\uc548\uc758 \uc885\uc2e0\uc9d1\uad8c\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uac83\ub9cc\uc740 \uc544\ub2d0 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ucfe0\ub974\ub4dc\uc871\uc758 \ub3c5\ub9bd \uad6d\uac00 \uc2e4\ud604 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\ub2e4\ub294 \ud604\uc2e4\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\uace0 \uc790\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc758 \uc0dd\uc874\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ubc1b\ub294 \uc870\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uce58\uad6c \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uad8c\ub9ac \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub178\ub825\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc77c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Disarmament of the PKK and Erdo\u011fan\u2019s Political Intentions Han Haeun  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2409,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2025-5-mena-focus"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2583"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2583\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2649,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2583\/revisions\/2649"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}