The Collapse of Iran’s Shia Crescent and Regional Influence Following the Fall of Syrian Regime<\/b><\/p>\n
Gi Yeon Koo(SNUAC)<\/strong><\/p>\n From Iran’s perspective, the collapse of the Syrian regime represents a critical event that has dealt a severe blow to its regional influence. Particularly, the “Shia Crescent” that Iran had carefully constructed over decades is now crumbling, significantly weakening Iran’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East. The collapse of the 40-year-old Iran-Syria strategic alliance has profound implications. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran has not only lost a key Middle Eastern ally but has also seen significant weakening of its “Axis of Resistance” – the anti-US and anti-Israel alliance network. This represents the collapse of the central axis of Iran’s Shia sphere of influence, known as the “Shia Crescent.”<\/p>\n The loss of Syria has particularly disrupted Iran’s support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The ground supply route connecting Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut has been cut off, making it difficult to provide weapons and supplies to Hezbollah. This presages a significant weakening of Iranian influence in Lebanon, the western end of the Shia Crescent. With Hezbollah already weakened by Israeli attacks on its leadership last year, Iran’s influence is expected to diminish further.<\/p>\n Iran’s weakening position is also affecting the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Building on its success in Syria, Israel has intensified airstrikes against Yemen and is considering eliminating Houthi leadership. This indicates that even the southern anchor of the Shia Crescent is under threat. While the Iranian government hopes to maintain relations with Syria’s new regime, prospects appear dim, with the Iranian embassy in Damascus being ransacked and Iranian diplomats fleeing. Syrian opposition leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has already indicated unwillingness to maintain hostile relations with Israel, suggesting Syria will no longer participate in Iran’s anti-Israel front.<\/p>\n Within Iran, criticism of foreign strategy is mounting in the wake of the Syrian situation. Domestic skeptics argue that resources should have been invested in national development rather than supporting the “Axis of Resistance.” Particularly, dissatisfaction with the Iranian government is intensifying amid power shortages due to oil supply difficulties from sanctions and escalating tensions over the nuclear program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei maintains that “the Axis of Resistance is not hardware that can be destroyed, but rather faith and dedication,” denying the loss of influence. However, the shock from Syria has made a fundamental review of Iran’s regional strategy inevitable. In this new reality of a collapsing Shia Crescent, Iran faces strategic choices: either accelerating its transition to becoming a nuclear weapons state or seeking improved relations with regional countries.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc815\uad8c \ubd95\uad34\ub85c \ubd95\uad34\ub418\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uc2b9\ub2ec\uacfc \uc911\ub3d9 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825<\/b><\/p>\n \uad6c\uae30\uc5f0(\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c)<\/strong><\/p>\n \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc815\uad8c\uc758 \ubd95\uad34\ub294 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc601\ud5a5\ub825\uc5d0 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uc785\ud78c \uc911\ub300\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uc218\uc2ed \ub144\uac04 \uacf5\ub4e4\uc5ec \uad6c\ucd95\ud55c ‘\uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uc2b9\ub2ec’\uc774 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 40\ub144 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c \uc774\ub780-\uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ub3d9\ub9f9\uc774 \ubb34\ub108\uc84c\ub2e4. \ubc14\uc0e4\ub974 \uc54c \uc544\uc0ac\ub4dc \uc815\uad8c\uc758 \ubd95\uad34\ub85c \uc774\ub780\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc6b0\ubc29\uad6d\uc744 \uc783\uc5c8\uc744 \ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, ‘\uc800\ud56d\uc758 \ucd95(Axis of Resistance)’\uc774\ub77c \ubd88\ub9ac\ub294 \ubc18\ubbf8\u00b7\ubc18\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \ub3d9\ub9f9 \ub124\ud2b8\uc6cc\ud06c\uac00 \uc2ec\uac01\ud558\uac8c \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uad6c\ucd95\ud55c \uc2dc\uc544\ud30c \uc601\ud5a5\uad8c\uc778 ‘\uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uc2b9\ub2ec’\uc758 \uc911\uc2ec\ucd95\uc774 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c4 \uac83\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud2b9\ud788 \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc0c1\uc2e4\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \ub808\ubc14\ub17c \ud5e4\uc988\ubcfc\ub77c \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc5d0 \ud070 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc744 \ube5a\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud14c\ud5e4\ub780-\ubc14\uadf8\ub2e4\ub4dc-\ub2e4\ub9c8\uc2a4\ucfe0\uc2a4-\ubca0\uc774\ub8e8\ud2b8\ub97c \uc787\ub294 \uc9c0\uc0c1 \ubcf4\uae09\ub85c\uac00 \ucc28\ub2e8\ub418\uc5b4 \ud5e4\uc988\ubcfc\ub77c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubb34\uae30\uc640 \ubb3c\uc790 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc774 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc\uc84c\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uc2b9\ub2ec\uc758 \uc11c\ucabd \ub05d\uc778 \ub808\ubc14\ub17c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825\uc774 \ud604\uc800\ud788 \uc57d\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc744 \uc608\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud5e4\uc988\ubcfc\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ub3c4\ubd80\uac00 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uc785\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5ec\uc11c, \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825\uc740 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc57d\ud654\ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc785\uc9c0 \uc57d\ud654\ub294 \uc608\uba58\uc758 \ud6c4\ud2f0 \ubc18\uad70\uc5d0\uac8c\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc740 \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uba58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacf5\uc2b5\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud6c4\ud2f0 \ubc18\uad70 \uc9c0\ub3c4\ubd80 \uc81c\uac70\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uc2b9\ub2ec\uc758 \ub0a8\ucabd \uac70\uc810\ub9c8\uc800 \uc704\ud611\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc774\ub780 \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc0c8 \uc815\uad8c\uacfc\uc758 \uad00\uacc4 \uc720\uc9c0\ub97c \ud76c\ub9dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e4\ub9c8\uc2a4\ucfe0\uc2a4\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \ub300\uc0ac\uad00\uc774 \uc57d\ud0c8\ub2f9\ud558\uace0 \uc774\ub780 \uc678\uad50\uad00\ub4e4\uc774 \ub3c4\uc8fc\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ubc1d\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4. \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \ubc18\uad70 \uc9c0\ub3c4\uc790 \uc544\ud750\uba54\ub4dc \uc54c \uc0e4\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc\uc758 \uc801\ub300 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc6d0\uce58 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544\uac00 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \ubc18\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uc804\uc120\uc5d0 \ub3d9\ucc38\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \ub0b4\ubd80\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc0ac\ud0dc\ub97c \uacc4\uae30\ub85c \ub300\uc678 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ube44\ud310\uc774 \uace0\uc870\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ud68c\uc758\ub860\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 ‘\uc800\ud56d\uc758 \ucd95’ \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc5d0 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \ub300\uc2e0 \uc790\uad6d \ubc1c\uc804\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud588\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ube44\ud310\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uacbd\uc81c\uc81c\uc7ac\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc11d\uc720 \uacf5\uae09 \ubd80\uc871\uacfc \uc804\ub825\ub09c, \ud575 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uace0\uc870\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544 \uc0c1\uc2e4\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \uc815\ubd80\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ub9cc\uc744 \uc99d\ud3ed\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub780 \ucd5c\uace0\uc9c0\ub3c4\uc790 \ud558\uba54\ub124\uc774\ub294 “\uc800\ud56d\uc758 \ucd95\uc740 \ud30c\uad34\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud558\ub4dc\uc6e8\uc5b4\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2e0\ub150\uacfc \ud5cc\uc2e0”\uc774\ub77c\uba70 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc0c1\uc2e4\uc744 \ubd80\uc778\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc2dc\ub9ac\uc544\ubc1c(\u767c) \ucda9\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\uac00 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c\ud574\uc9c4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780\uc740 \uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uc2b9\ub2ec \ubd95\uad34\ub77c\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud604\uc2e4 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ud575\ubb34\uae30 \ubcf4\uc720\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud558\uac70\ub098, \uc5ed\ub0b4 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uacfc\uc758 \uad00\uacc4 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \uac15\uc694\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Collapse of Iran’s Shia Crescent and Regional Influence Following […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2354,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024-12-mena-focus"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2353"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2370,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353\/revisions\/2370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2354"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}