Forecasting the Continuation of Pragmatic, Interest-Based Foreign Policies by Gulf States Following Trump’s Re-election<\/b><\/p>\n
Ahn Soyeon (SNUAC)<\/strong><\/p>\n As former President Donald Trump potentially returns to office following the U.S. presidential election, attention is turning to possible shifts in U.S. Middle East policy. Gulf states, traditionally close allies of the U.S., appear to welcome Trump\u2019s return to power. However, there are simultaneous concerns that his administration\u2019s second term might pursue a Middle East policy distinct from that of his first, reflecting changes in the global order.<\/p>\n During Trump\u2019s first term, his administration cultivated personal ties with Gulf leaders, expanded arms deals, and fostered amicable relations. At the same time, it largely avoided interfering in internal issues such as human rights within the Gulf states. Demonstrating these ties, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman promptly congratulated Trump upon his initial election victory.<\/p>\n However, a second Trump administration may have to navigate new Middle Eastern policies amid complex global crises such as the Ukraine war and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Furthermore, Gulf states\u2019 diplomatic strategies have undergone significant changes compared to Trump\u2019s first term. During that period, the Gulf nations focused on isolating Qatar and exerting pressure on Iran. In contrast, under the Biden administration, they have adopted a more conciliatory approach, exemplified by the Saudi-Iran normalization agreement.<\/p>\n Despite these regional shifts, Trump is expected to escalate pressure on Iran, which could further strain U.S.-Iran relations and heighten political instability in the Gulf. Concerns have also been raised about potential disagreements between the Gulf states and a second Trump administration regarding efforts to resolve conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon amid deteriorating Arab public sentiment. For instance, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed support for a two-state solution, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recently intensified criticism of Israel, labeling its actions in Gaza as \u201cgenocide.\u201d These developments suggest possible discord between Gulf nations and a Trump administration over Israel-related issues.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, Trump is likely to continue efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. This raises questions about the negotiation strategies Gulf states might employ during these discussions.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Gulf nations have maintained friendly ties with emerging global powers like China and Russia amid the U.S.\u2019s gradual pivot away from the Middle East. They are expected to prioritize their national interests under a second Trump administration, balancing relations with the U.S. while pursuing pragmatic benefits through diversified diplomacy with China, Russia, and other international players.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc7ac\uc9d1\uad8c \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4 \uc2e4\ub9ac \uc704\uc8fc \uc678\uad50 \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd<\/b><\/p>\n \uc548\uc18c\uc5f0 (\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c)<\/strong><\/p>\n \ubbf8 \ub300\uc120 \uacb0\uacfc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc804 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uc7ac\uc9d1\uad8c\ud558\uac8c \ub428\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ubbf8 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ub300\uc911\ub3d9 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uba3c\uc800 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc804\ud1b5 \uc6b0\ubc29 \uad6d\uac00\uc778 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uc7ac\uc9d1\uad8c\uc744 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\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uce5c\ubd84\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub4ef \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \ub2f9\uc120\ub418\uc790\ub9c8\uc790 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544 \ubb34\ud568\ub9c8\ub4dc \ube48 \uc0b4\ub9cc\uc740 \uace7\ubc14\ub85c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub2f9\uc120\uc778\uc5d0\uac8c \ucd95\ud558 \uc778\uc0ac\ub97c \uc804\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc9d1\uad8c 2\uae30 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc6b0\ud06c\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1, \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8-\ud558\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ubcf5\ud569\uc801\uc778 \uad6d\uc81c \uc704\uae30 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ub300\uc911\ub3d9 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ud3bc\uccd0\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ubc30\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc678\uad50 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc9d1\uad8c 1\uae30\uc640 \ube44\uad50\ud574 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84 \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\uc600\ub2e4. \uce74\ud0c0\ub974 \ub2e8\uad50, \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc555\ubc15\uc774 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc678\uad50 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uae30\uc870\uc600\ub358 \uac83\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc720\ud654\ub41c \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc678\uad50 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubc14\uc774\ub4e0 \uc815\ubd80 \uc9d1\uad8c \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514-\uc774\ub780 \uac04 \uad00\uacc4 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\ub840\ub77c\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubbf8\ubb18\ud55c \uac78\ud504 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uc5ed\ub0b4 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub2f9\uc120\uc778\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc555\ubc15 \uc218\uc704\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 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\ud589\uc704\ub97c \ub300\ub7c9\ud559\uc0b4\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc758 \uc218\uc704\ub97c \ub192\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c, \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc \uad00\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uacfc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 \uac04\uc758 \uc774\uacac \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ubc30\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\ub97c \ube44\ub86f\ud55c \uc544\ub78d \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uacfc \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc\uc758 \uad00\uacc4 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub97c \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uc774 \uacfc\uc815 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \ud611\uc0c1 \uce74\ub4dc\ub97c \ub0b4\uc138\uc6b8\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uadc0\ucd94\uac00 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud55c\ud3b8, \uadf8\ub3d9\uc548 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ud0c8\uc911\ub3d9 \uc815\ucc45 \ucd94\uc9c4 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uad6d, \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uad6d\uc81c\uc0ac\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c8\ub86d\uac8c \ubd80\uc0c1\ud55c \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uacfc\ub3c4 \uc6b0\ud638 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc654\ub2e4. \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc9d1\uad8c 2\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uad6d\uc775 \ucd94\uad6c\ub97c \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120 \uacfc\uc81c\ub85c \ub450\uace0 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc815\ubd80\uc640\uc758 \uad00\uacc4 \uc720\uc9c0 \uc18d \uc911\uad6d, \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \ub4f1\uacfc \uc678\uad50 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc2e4\uc6a9\uc801 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc678\uad50 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uaf80\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Forecasting the Continuation of Pragmatic, Interest-Based Foreign Policies by Gulf […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2290,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024-11-mena-focus"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2314"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2349,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314\/revisions\/2349"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2290"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wac.snuac.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}